…erforms better than the market over a long period (think T Rowe Price’s Capital Appreciation Fund), the likelihood that it will underperform for an extended period in the future is lower than if you pick a random fund.
Absolutely. If I were to invest in an actively managed fund (which I don’t) I would want to pick one that has a good track record. It will maximize your odds of outperformance going forward. But even then, I’m not convinced any fund will outperform the market net of fees over the rest of my investing lifetime. So, I stick with a Vanguard Index fund and pay a few basis points.